Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

What you need to know

This market asks: how hot will Houston get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which two-degree temperature band — 82–83°F, 84–85°F, or 86–87°F — will contain the single hottest reading of the day at one Houston weather station. Think of it as a range-guessing game for the afternoon peak heat. Mid-July in Houston is deep summer, so the question is really about where in that hot-but-variable zone the thermometer lands that day. After July 15, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Hobby Airport station and finds the single highest temperature recorded that day, in whole degrees Fahrenheit. Whatever two-degree range contains that number wins — for example, a reading of 85°F would land in the 84–85°F bucket. The data can be revised up until the first reading of July 16 appears, after which the number is locked in. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. The one headline supplied — about a bishop appointment — has nothing to do with Houston weather. What would actually matter here is any extended forecast for Houston around July 15, 2026, or reports of an unusual heat dome or cold front approaching the Gulf Coast region around that time. July in Houston is reliably hot, but the exact peak on any single day still depends on factors that are hard to predict far out: cloud cover, Gulf moisture, wind direction, and whether a storm system happens to pass through and briefly cool things down. The market currently leans toward 84–85°F at 42%, but 23% is still on the cooler side and 28% on the warmer side, reflecting real spread. A year out, even the best weather models have very limited accuracy for a specific date.

The odds right now

• 84-85°F42%
• 82-83°F29%
• 86-87°F23%
• 80-81°F5%
• 88-89°F4%
• 79°F or below1%
• 90-91°F1%
• 92-93°F0%
• 94-95°F0%
• 96-97°F0%
• 98°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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