Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day at Istanbul Airport? The three options are 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C — roughly the difference between a mild summer afternoon and a warm one. Think of 25°C as about 77°F, a pleasant but not scorching summer day. Participants are essentially voting on which single degree the thermometer peaks at, according to one specific weather station at the airport. After July 14, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded that day by NOAA at Istanbul Airport (station code LTFM). The reading is in whole degrees Celsius — so 25.7°C would count as 25°C, not 26°C. Importantly, the market waits until the first data point of July 15 appears before settling, allowing any last-minute corrections to the July 14 data to be included. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. No recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense — it's a weather question more than a news question. What would matter to watch closer to the date is any seasonal weather forecast for Istanbul in mid-July, or unusual heat or cold patterns affecting the eastern Mediterranean region in summer 2026. The core challenge is that weather at a specific location on a specific future date is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out. The market currently leans toward 25°C at 62%, with 26°C as the second choice at 29%. That spread makes sense — mid-July in Istanbul typically brings warm but variable days. A passing cloud system, a sea breeze off the Bosphorus, or an unexpected heat surge could all shift the peak by a degree or two, and one degree is the entire margin between outcomes here.

The odds right now

• 25°C70%
• 26°C22%
• 24°C7%
• 27°C4%
• 23°C3%
• 28°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.