Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, how hot will it get in Istanbul — specifically, will the day's peak temperature hit 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C? Think of it as a temperature guessing game for a single summer afternoon in Istanbul. The market currently leans toward 27°C as the most likely peak, with 28°C as the second choice and 29°C seen as much less probable. It's not about averages — just the single hottest reading of that day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Istanbul Airport on July 15, 2026, as shown on a specific NOAA weather data page. Whichever option — 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C — contains that number wins. The reading is rounded to a whole degree (no decimals), and the result is locked in once the first data point from July 16 appears on that page. Any corrections NOAA makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline supplied is about Malaysian student loan policy — completely unrelated to Istanbul's weather. What would actually matter here is any meteorological forecast for Istanbul around July 15, 2026, or historical temperature data for that date in past years, neither of which was included. Mid-July in Istanbul is reliably warm, but the exact peak on any single day is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. Daily highs in that period typically range from the mid-20s to low 30s Celsius, so 27°C and 28°C are both plausible. A passing cloud system, sea breeze, or a short heat event could easily shift the reading by a degree or two either way — and one degree is all that separates each outcome here. The market is fairly split between 27°C and 28°C for exactly this reason.

The odds right now

• 27°C51%
• 28°C34%
• 29°C9%
• 26°C4%
• 25°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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