Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 16, 2026 feel like at Istanbul Airport? Specifically, it's asking whether that peak temperature lands at 27°C (about 81°F), 28°C (about 82°F), or 29°C (about 84°F). Think of it as picking which notch on a thermometer the afternoon heat tops out at — one single number, rounded to a whole degree, for the whole day. After July 16, 2026 ends, officials will look at the NOAA weather station at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) and find the single highest temperature recorded that day. Whatever whole-degree Celsius number that reading shows — 27, 28, or 29 — is the answer that wins. One key detail: any small corrections NOAA makes to that day's data are still counted, but only until the first new data point for July 17 appears. After that, the number is locked in as final. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a seasonal forecast for Istanbul in mid-July 2026 — for example, if meteorologists flagged an unusually hot or cool summer ahead for the region. As the date gets closer, a standard 10-day weather forecast for Istanbul would become the most directly relevant thing to watch. July weather is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. The three options here cover just a 3-degree window, and the difference between a 27°C day and a 28°C day can come down to a single cloud, a sea breeze off the Bosphorus, or the timing of a weather system. The market currently leans toward 27°C at 52%, but 28°C is close behind at 42%, reflecting real uncertainty. No forecast today can reliably distinguish between those two outcomes for a specific date over a year away.

The odds right now

• 27°C52%
• 28°C42%
• 29°C7%
• 26°C2%
• 31°C2%
• 30°C1%
• 24°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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