Highest temperature in Jeddah on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Jeddah get on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it's asking you to pick which temperature bucket the single highest reading of that day falls into — 38°C, 39°C, or 40°C and above. To put that in everyday terms, 40°C is 104°F — serious, punishing heat. The market is essentially a temperature forecast for one of the hottest cities on Earth, on a midsummer day, narrowed down to a single number. At the end of July 20, 2026, whoever runs this market will check the Weather Underground website for the King Abdulaziz International Airport weather station in Jeddah. They take the single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius, and whichever bucket it lands in wins. The reading is locked in once the first data point from July 21 appears on that site — after that, any corrections to July 20's data are ignored. There are no ties or cancellations; one of the three ranges will always win. None of the provided news relates to this market. The one headline is about an education policy bill in India, which has no connection to Jeddah's weather. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch for is any meteorological forecast for the Arabian Peninsula in mid-July 2026, or reports of an unusual heat wave or cooler-than-normal weather pattern approaching the region. Jeddah in mid-July is reliably very hot, which is why the market prices the 40°C-or-higher bucket as the most likely outcome at 59%. But "reliably hot" is not the same as "certain." Daily highs can vary by several degrees depending on wind direction, humidity, and cloud cover. The airport station's reading on any single day could land right on a boundary between buckets. The market is not a coin toss — it leans heavily toward extreme heat — but the real question is whether a somewhat cooler day is possible, which is what the 30% and 8% buckets represent.

The odds right now

• 40°C or higher63%
• 39°C28%
• 38°C8%
• 37°C2%
• 36°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 30°C or below0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.