Highest temperature in Karachi on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Karachi, measured at one specific weather station? The three options are 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — each representing a single degree on the thermometer. The market currently favors 32°C (43% chance) as the peak daytime temperature, with 33°C close behind at 38%, and 31°C considered less likely at 10%. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in Karachi on July 19, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whichever whole-degree Celsius reading was the day's peak determines which option wins. It can only officially close after the first reading from July 20 appears on that site — meaning any temperature corrections made before that cutoff still count, but later revisions do not. The one news item provided — about a commission probing an unrelated incident in Ziarat — has no bearing on Karachi's weather on this date. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would genuinely matter is a short-range weather forecast for Karachi around July 19, 2026, especially one indicating whether a sea breeze, heat wave, or monsoon influence is expected. July in Karachi is genuinely tricky to pin down to a single degree. The city sits on the Arabian Sea coast, and its summer temperatures are heavily shaped by daily sea breezes that can swing the peak reading by several degrees. The three leading options — 31, 32, and 33°C — are bunched closely together, which means a modest shift in wind or cloud cover on that one day determines the outcome. One station's reading on one afternoon leaves little room for confident prediction.

The odds right now

• 32°C95%
• 33°C5%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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