Highest temperature in London on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, what will the peak daytime temperature be in London — specifically at London City Airport? The three options are 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C (roughly 82°F, 84°F, or 86°F). A mid-July day in London typically feels warm but not extreme, so the question is really about whether the day tips into notably hot territory (30°C and above) or stays a bit cooler. Only one temperature wins — whichever single degree matches the day's recorded high. At the end of July 14, 2026, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for London City Airport (station code EGLC) and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever bracket — 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C — contains that number wins. The market stays open until the first data point for July 15 appears on that site, which acts as confirmation the day's readings are complete. Any last-minute corrections to the data before that cutoff count; changes after do not. The two news items provided are unrelated to London weather — one is about a health ministry in Malaysia, the other a cultural piece about Gen Z. There is no relevant recent news to draw on here. What would actually matter is any short-range weather forecast for London around July 14, 2026, or broader climate context about how hot mid-July typically gets at London City Airport. July weather in London is genuinely hard to pin down even days in advance — a difference of one or two degrees depends on cloud cover, wind direction, and whether a warm continental air mass drifts in from Europe. The market is spread across just three adjacent temperatures, so the margin between winning and losing options is razor thin. The fact that 30°C and 29°C together account for nearly three-quarters of the market's implied probability suggests participants lean warm, but a cooler or hotter day than any of those three options remains possible.

The odds right now

• 29°C48%
• 28°C27%
• 30°C20%
• 27°C5%
• 31°C2%
• 26°C1%
• 25°C0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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