Highest temperature in London on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 15, 2026 feel like in London — specifically, will the peak temperature that day hit 27°C, 28°C, 29°C, or something else? Think of it as a contest over what the thermometer's highest reading will be on that one day. Each temperature option is a separate outcome, and only one wins. Right now the market leans toward 28°C (roughly 82°F) as the most likely peak, followed closely by 29°C (about 84°F). After July 15, 2026 ends, the market checks a single source: the Weather Underground page for London City Airport (station code EGLC). Whatever the highest recorded temperature shown there is — in whole degrees Celsius — that's the winning outcome. If the thermometer peaks at 28.7°C, it rounds to 29°C; if it hits 28.2°C, it counts as 28°C. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears on that page. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be long-range weather forecasts for London in mid-July 2026, any signals about whether that summer is trending warmer or cooler than average, or updates from the UK Met Office about seasonal outlooks — none of which are available here yet. Weather this far out is genuinely hard to forecast — even professional meteorologists rarely predict a specific daily high more than a week or two in advance with confidence. Mid-July in London has historically seen highs anywhere from the low 20s to above 35°C, so the spread is real. The market is spread across three close options (27, 28, 29°C), which reflects that honest uncertainty. A single weather system shifting by a day could easily move the peak by two or three degrees in either direction.

The odds right now

• 28°C38%
• 29°C36%
• 27°C18%
• 30°C8%
• 26°C5%
• 31°C1%
• 24°C or below1%
• 25°C1%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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