Highest temperature in London on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will the hottest moment of the day feel like in London — specifically, will the peak temperature hit 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C (roughly 81°F, 82°F, or 84°F)? Think of it as picking the right notch on a thermometer for a single summer afternoon. A Yes on 28°C means the day's highest reading lands exactly at 28 — not 27, not 29. Each option is a separate, mutually exclusive outcome. After July 16, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged that day at London City Airport (station code EGLC), pulled from the weather-tracking site Weather Underground. The reading must be a whole number in Celsius — so 28.4°C would round down to 28°C. The market waits until the first data point of July 17 appears before finalizing, to allow any late corrections to that day's record. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. The two news items provided are about education policy in India and an Alzheimer's drug trial — neither has any connection to London weather. There is no relevant recent news to draw on here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a medium-range weather forecast for London around July 16, 2026, which would only become meaningfully accurate within about 10 days of that date. July is still a year away, and that is the core problem — long-range weather forecasting is genuinely unreliable beyond about two weeks. Even on the day itself, London's summer highs can shift several degrees based on whether a warm continental air mass arrives or Atlantic cloud rolls in. The market's three options are clustered within just a 2°C range (27–29°C), meaning a single degree of forecast error changes the outcome entirely. That narrow spread makes this especially sensitive to small atmospheric changes no one can predict this far out.

The odds right now

• 28°C49%
• 29°C23%
• 27°C21%
• 26°C5%
• 30°C4%
• 31°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 32°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.