Highest temperature in London on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the hottest moment of the day be in London — and specifically, will the peak reach 21°C, 22°C, 23°C, or something else? Think of it as a temperature guessing game for a single day. The three leading options cover roughly 68–74°F — a warm but not scorching summer day. Each degree range is a separate outcome, so the market is splitting opinion across a narrow band of possibilities. After July 19, 2026 ends, the market checks one specific source: Weather Underground's historical data for London City Airport (station code EGLC). Whatever the single highest temperature reading was that day — rounded to a whole number in Celsius — determines the winner. One important detail: if Weather Underground updates or corrects the temperature before the first data point of July 20 appears, that revision counts. After that cutoff, the original reading is locked in, even if corrections come later. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The two headlines listed are about university enrollment in the United States and have nothing to do with London temperatures. What would actually matter here: seasonal forecasts for the UK in mid-July 2026, or any notable weather patterns developing over Europe as that date approaches. July weather in London is genuinely difficult to pin down even a week in advance, let alone further out. July 19 could be overcast and mild or briefly sunny and warm — a difference of just a few degrees separates the top three outcomes, and the market reflects real spread across them. The fact that 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C together account for about 90% of the odds shows the market expects a fairly typical summer day, but which exact degree it lands on is a close call by design.

The odds right now

• 22°C36%
• 23°C30%
• 21°C25%
• 24°C8%
• 20°C5%
• 25°C1%
• 19°C or below1%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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