Highest temperature in London on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be in London — specifically at London City Airport — rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius? Think of it like guessing the peak reading on a thermometer that day. The three main options the market is focused on are 23°C (about 73°F), 24°C (about 75°F), and 25°C (about 77°F) — a fairly narrow range of mild-to-warm summer temperatures. After July 20, 2026 ends, the market checks one specific source: the Weather Underground historical record for London City Airport (station code EGLC). Whatever the highest temperature reading was that day — in whole degrees Celsius — determines which option wins. One small detail: the market waits until the first data point for July 21 appears before officially settling, to allow any late corrections to July 20's record to be captured first. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. Since the date is still over a year away, the kind of development that would actually matter is a reliable weather forecast for London in mid-July 2026 — which won't be meaningful until roughly two weeks before the date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even a few days out, let alone more than a year in advance. The market currently leans toward 24°C at 39%, but the top three options together cover only a three-degree range, and London's July temperatures can swing well outside that window — heat waves or cooler spells both happen. The specific station (London City Airport) also sits in a particular microclimate near the Thames, which can read differently than other parts of London.

The odds right now

• 23°C32%
• 24°C31%
• 22°C or below21%
• 25°C17%
• 26°C3%
• 27°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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