Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Los Angeles get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day — the peak afternoon heat — at the weather station located at LAX airport. The three ranges on offer are 78–79°F, 80–81°F, and 82–83°F, which in Celsius is roughly 26–28°C. The market currently leans toward 80–81°F as the most likely outcome, with cooler and warmer ranges less favored. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at the LAX airport weather station (station code KLAX) on July 15, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whichever 2-degree range contains that peak reading wins. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees — so a reading of 80°F falls in the 80–81°F range, not 79–80°F. The result is locked in once Weather Underground publishes the first data point for July 16, after which no revisions to the July 15 readings are counted. No relevant weather news was provided — the two headlines are about Malaysian politics and are unrelated to Los Angeles temperatures. That's not unusual this far out. The kind of news that would actually matter here would be a seasonal forecast for Southern California in mid-July 2026, or early signs of a heat dome or marine layer pattern developing in the region as the date approaches. Weather at a specific location on a specific future date is genuinely hard to pin down, even one day out — let alone a year ahead. LAX sits near the coast, so its temperatures are heavily influenced by the marine layer, a cool ocean fog that often keeps coastal LA cooler than inland areas. A strong marine layer on July 15 could push readings toward the lower range; a hot, dry inland wind could push them higher. The three ranges span only six degrees total, so even small forecast errors shift the outcome.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F42%
• 78-79°F32%
• 82-83°F17%
• 76-77°F3%
• 84-85°F3%
• 75°F or below2%
• 86-87°F2%
• 88-89°F0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92-93°F0%
• 94°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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