Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Lucknow get on July 16, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at the city's main airport weather station. The three outcomes are ranges — above 35°C (very hot, roughly 95°F), exactly 34°C (about 93°F), or exactly 33°C (about 91°F). The market is essentially a temperature forecast, broken into buckets, for one specific day about a year from now. After July 16, 2026 ends, the market checks one source: Weather Underground's historical log for Lucknow's Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport station. Whatever the highest whole-number Celsius temperature recorded that day turns out to be, that determines which range wins. Fractions are not used — readings are rounded to whole degrees. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 17 appears on that page, and any earlier revisions before that cutoff still count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is over a year away, the kind of developments worth watching later would be seasonal forecasts for North India's monsoon period — July is typically monsoon season in Lucknow, which tends to bring clouds and rain that can cap daytime highs compared to the brutal pre-monsoon heat of May and June. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to predict with precision. July 16 falls during Lucknow's monsoon season, when a single cloudy or rainy day can hold the peak temperature at 33°C, while a break in cloud cover can push it past 35°C. That day-to-day variability is the core challenge. The market is fairly spread across the three outcomes — 44%, 33%, and 14% — which itself signals real uncertainty rather than a clear favorite, making this one of the more genuinely open weather questions.

The odds right now

• 35°C or higher55%
• 34°C31%
• 33°C13%
• 32°C5%
• 31°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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