Highest temperature in Madrid on July 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 13, 2026, how hot will it get in Madrid? Specifically, it wants to know the peak temperature of the day — the single highest reading recorded at Madrid's main airport. The three possible outcomes are: the day peaks at 32°C or cooler, exactly 33°C, or exactly 34°C. To put that in physical terms, 33°C feels like a very hot summer day (about 91°F), and 34°C is one degree hotter — a meaningful but narrow difference in a Madrid July. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged on July 13, 2026 at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport weather station, as reported by Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The market can only close after the first data point from July 14 appears, confirming the day is complete. Any corrections to July 13 readings published before that cutoff count — but corrections made afterward do not. The two news items provided are about education policy in India and have no connection to Madrid's weather or temperature forecasts. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch for is any extended heat forecast for central Spain in the days leading up to July 13, or any meteorological alerts issued by Spain's national weather service, AEMET. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely hard, and even on the day itself, a single degree difference is a very narrow target. The market currently leans toward 33°C — the market prices that at about 65% — with 34°C getting around 30%. But Madrid's July temperatures can shift based on whether a heat dome settles over the Iberian Peninsula or Atlantic air moves in. A one-degree swing either way changes the outcome completely, and that kind of precision is difficult to predict well in advance.

The odds right now

• 33°C71%
• 34°C21%
• 32°C or below9%
• 35°C2%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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