Highest temperature in Madrid on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will Madrid get at its main airport? The three options are a peak of 36°C, 37°C, or 38°C — each representing a specific whole-degree reading. In everyday terms, 37°C is about 99°F, a genuinely hot summer day. The market is essentially a temperature forecast for one specific day, narrowed down to a three-degree range, with 37°C currently seen as the most likely outcome by a wide margin. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on July 14, 2026, pulled from the weather site Wunderground. Whatever whole-degree peak that station logs that day decides the result — for example, a reading of 37°C means the '37°C' option wins. One detail worth knowing: the result is locked in once Wunderground publishes its first data point for July 15. Any temperature corrections published after that cutoff are ignored, even if the official record later changes. None of the news provided relates to Madrid's weather or this market in any way — the headlines cover unrelated topics from around the world. There is no relevant recent information to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date: official weather forecasts for Madrid in mid-July 2026, any heat wave alerts from Spain's meteorological agency (AEMET), and broader summer climate patterns in the Iberian Peninsula. Weather prediction more than a few days out is genuinely difficult, even for professionals with sophisticated models. A year in advance, it is essentially impossible to know whether July 14, 2026 will be a slightly cooler day, a normal hot Madrid summer day, or the edge of a heat wave. The three options are separated by just one degree each, which is a very narrow margin — a single cloud cover shift or wind change can move the peak reading across a boundary. The market's 64% on 37°C reflects a reasonable central estimate, but the real uncertainty is high.

The odds right now

• 37°C77%
• 36°C18%
• 38°C6%
• 35°C1%
• 34°C0%
• 33°C or below0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C0%
• 43°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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