Highest temperature in Madrid on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the peak temperature be in Madrid on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking you to pick between three temperature bands — 35°C, 36°C, or 37°C (roughly 95°F, 97°F, or 99°F) — and the one that matches the actual hottest reading of the day wins. Mid-July in Madrid is deep summer, so these are all plausible hot-day temperatures. The question is just how hot, not whether it will be hot. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded on July 15, 2026, at Madrid's Barajas Airport weather station, as reported by the website Weather Underground. The reading is taken in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. Whichever option (35°C, 36°C, or 37°C) matches that peak reading wins. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears on Weather Underground, after which no revisions to the July 15 reading will be counted. No relevant news was provided for this market. That's normal — weather forecasts for a date over a year away don't exist yet. What will matter closer to the date is the medium-range weather forecast for Madrid around July 15, 2026, and whether any unusual heat patterns (like an early heatwave or cooler-than-normal conditions) are developing over the Iberian Peninsula. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even a few days out, let alone over a year in advance. The market currently favors 36°C at about 59%, with 37°C and 35°C splitting the remaining probability fairly evenly. July 15 in Madrid typically sees highs in the mid-to-upper 30s, so all three options are historically realistic. The main unknowns are atmospheric conditions on that specific day — cloud cover, wind direction, whether a heat dome sits over Spain or not — none of which anyone can know today.

The odds right now

• 36°C66%
• 35°C21%
• 37°C13%
• 38°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 39°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 32°C or below0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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