Highest temperature in Madrid on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will Madrid get on July 16, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at Madrid's main airport weather station. The three options — 34°C, 35°C, or 36°C — each represent a one-degree bracket, so whichever exact whole-degree peak temperature the station records that day determines the winner. To give you a feel for the scale: 35°C is about 95°F, and 36°C is about 97°F — a hot but fairly typical midsummer day in Madrid. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged by the weather station at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on July 16, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whoever reads that number — expressed as a whole degree Celsius, no decimals — matches it to one of the three brackets, and that bracket wins. One edge case worth noting: the result is locked in only after the first data point for July 17 appears, giving a small window for any last-minute corrections to the July 16 reading to be counted. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a question like this, the kinds of developments worth watching would be extended-range weather forecasts for Madrid in mid-July 2026, or any emerging climate pattern — like an early-season heat dome over Iberia — that forecasters flag as we get closer to the date. Weather forecasting this far out — over a year in advance — is genuinely very uncertain. Even professional meteorologists can't reliably predict a single day's peak temperature more than about two weeks ahead. The market's current spread reflects historical averages for mid-July in Madrid rather than any actual forecast. As July 2026 approaches, forecasts will sharpen considerably. For now, the main honest uncertainty is simply that a year of atmospheric variability stands between today and that single thermometer reading.

The odds right now

• 35°C49%
• 36°C35%
• 34°C14%
• 37°C5%
• 33°C1%
• 32°C1%
• 38°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 30°C or below0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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