Highest temperature in Madrid on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, how hot will Madrid get? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day recorded at Madrid's main airport — and which degree Celsius bucket that peak falls into. A result of 36°C means the hottest moment of that day hit somewhere in the 36-degree range, not 35, not 37. Mid-July in Madrid is deep summer, so the question is really about how intense that particular day turns out to be. The market settles based on whatever peak temperature Weather Underground logs for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station on July 19, 2026 — rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whichever temperature bucket (35°C, 36°C, 37°C, etc.) contains that number wins. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 20 appears on the site — so last-minute revisions before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. No recent news relevant to Madrid's July 2026 weather was provided. The kind of development that would actually matter here is a long-range forecast for that specific date, or news about an approaching heatwave or unusual pressure system over the Iberian Peninsula — those are the signals worth watching as July 19 approaches. Weather on a specific future date is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out — even professional meteorologists can't reliably pin down a single city's peak temperature weeks in advance. The market leans toward 36°C at 52%, but 37°C and 35°C together account for the remaining 41%, reflecting real spread. A passing cloud system, a shift in wind direction, or an Atlantic front could easily push the reading a degree cooler or warmer than expected on that one day.

The odds right now

• 36°C57%
• 35°C25%
• 37°C18%
• 38°C4%
• 34°C2%
• 33°C1%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 31°C or below0%
• 32°C0%
• 41°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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