Highest temperature in Madrid on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the hottest moment of the day feel like in Madrid? Specifically, it asks whether the peak temperature at Madrid's main airport weather station will hit 36°C (about 97°F), 37°C (about 99°F), or 38°C (about 100°F). Think of it as picking the right notch on a thermometer for one specific summer afternoon. The market currently splits fairly evenly between 36°C and 37°C, with 38°C seen as much less likely. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees — so 36.7°C would count as 36°C, not 37°C. The result is locked in once the first reading from July 21 appears on that site. Any late corrections to July 20's data made after that cutoff are ignored. There are no cancelled-market edge cases mentioned; it simply resolves to whichever temperature range matches. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline included is about an unrelated political topic in India. For a market like this, what would actually matter is medium-range weather forecast data for Madrid in mid-to-late July 2026 — things like whether a heat wave is building over the Iberian Peninsula or whether cooler Atlantic air is expected around that date. Weather forecasting beyond a few days is genuinely hard, and this market closes more than a year away, so no forecast can reliably predict a single day's peak temperature yet. Even closer to the date, a one-degree difference is a very narrow target — a shift in wind direction or cloud cover can easily move the needle by exactly that margin. Madrid in late July regularly sees highs anywhere from the mid-30s to above 40°C, so the range of realistic outcomes is wide. The closeness of the 36°C and 37°C odds reflects that genuine coin-toss uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 36°C51%
• 37°C30%
• 38°C8%
• 35°C7%
• 34°C1%
• 39°C1%
• 40°C0%
• 32°C or below0%
• 33°C0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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