Highest temperature in Madrid on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Madrid on June 15, 2026? The temperature is measured at the official weather station at Madrid's main airport, Barajas. Participants are guessing which degree — 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — the thermometer peaks at. The market currently leans toward 32°C (40% implied chance), with 31°C second and 33°C third. After June 15, 2026 ends, the market looks up the single highest temperature recorded that day at the Barajas Airport weather station on the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-degree number that site shows — say, 32°C — is the answer. The market only settles once the first reading from June 16 appears, confirming the day is complete. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so a reading of 31.7°C would count as 31°C. None of the provided news is relevant to this market. The only headline is about events in the West Bank, which has no connection to Madrid's weather. To watch for something useful here, you'd want seasonal weather forecasts for central Spain or historical June temperature data for the Barajas station — neither of which was provided. Weather forecasting a year in advance is genuinely impossible — no model can predict a single day's peak temperature that far out. The market's odds essentially reflect historical averages for mid-June in Madrid, not any real forecast. Madrid in June can swing significantly depending on whether a heat system or cooler Atlantic air moves in that week. The honest answer is that until about 10 days before June 15, 2026, this is almost entirely a question of historical patterns, not prediction.

The odds right now

• 31°C36%
• 32°C36%
• 30°C18%
• 33°C12%
• 29°C2%
• 34°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C or higher0%
• 27°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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