Highest temperature in Manila on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will Manila get at its peak? Specifically, it's asking whether the single hottest moment of that day — recorded at the weather station at Ninoy Aquino International Airport — will land in the 32°C range, the 33°C range, or the 34°C range. Think of it as a one-day thermometer reading for Manila: not the average temperature, but the highest point the mercury touches all day. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at the NAIA airport weather station on July 14, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-number Celsius reading appears as the day's peak — for example, 32°C or 33°C — determines the winning outcome. The key detail: only data available before the first reading of July 15 counts. Any corrections made after that cutoff are ignored, even if the official record later changes. None of the recent headlines provided relate to Manila's weather or temperature forecasts. There is no relevant news to point to here. What would matter to watch is any forecast or meteorological report specifically covering Manila around July 14, 2026 — particularly anything noting unusual heat or a monsoon pattern that could push temperatures up or keep them lower than typical. July is deep in Manila's rainy season, which usually brings cloud cover and rain that cap daytime highs — that's why the market leans heavily toward 32°C. But Manila's heat is genuinely variable: a drier stretch or brief break in cloud cover can push the peak a degree or two higher. The gap between 32°C and 33°C is just one degree, and a single sunny afternoon hour can cross that line. A year out, no forecast is reliable enough to call this with confidence.

The odds right now

• 32°C98%
• 33°C2%
• 29°C or below0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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