Highest temperature in Manila on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Manila get on one specific day — July 15, 2026? The temperature is measured at the weather station inside Ninoy Aquino International Airport. Participants pick a bucket: 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C, and whoever picked the bucket containing that day's actual peak temperature wins. To picture it: 33°C is about 91°F, a hot and humid Manila afternoon — fairly typical for mid-July. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at the NAIA airport weather station on July 15, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number — no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears on that site, after which no corrections to the July 15 readings are accepted. Whichever temperature bucket (32, 33, or 34°C) contains that peak reading is the winner. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather question like this, what would matter most to watch is seasonal forecasting data as July 2026 approaches — for example, whether an El Niño or La Niña pattern is active, since those can shift Manila's typical temperature range noticeably in either direction. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, let alone over a year away. The market currently leans toward 33°C at 46%, but 34°C and 32°C together account for nearly half the probability. July is Manila's rainy season, when cloud cover and rain can cap daytime highs — but humidity and breaks in the rain can still push temperatures up. The specific station location at an airport also matters, since tarmac heat can read slightly differently than a city average.

The odds right now

• 33°C68%
• 34°C30%
• 35°C1%
• 36°C0%
• 27°C or below0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 37°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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