Highest temperature in Manila on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day in Manila? The three options are 32°C (about 90°F), 33°C (about 91°F), or 34°C (about 93°F). A Yes on 32°C means the day's peak stays at or below that range; a Yes on 33°C means it climbs one degree higher; a Yes on 34°C means it gets quite hot even by Manila standards. The market currently puts 32°C as the most likely outcome at 52%. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport weather station on July 19, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. It uses whole-number Celsius only — so 32.7°C would count as 32°C, not 33°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 20 appears on that site; any corrections published after that point are ignored. There is no ambiguity about who decides — it is purely the Weather Underground reading for that specific station. The only news provided is about a political incident in Pakistan, which has no connection to Manila's weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is any seasonal forecast for the Philippines around mid-July 2026 — particularly whether that period falls under unusual heat or a cooling rainy spell. July is deep in Manila's rainy season, which generally keeps peak temperatures lower than the scorching April–May dry season — that is why 32°C leads the odds. But the rainy season is uneven: a cloudy, wet day can cap temperatures well below 33°C, while a partly sunny day can push past it. The exact cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind on that single day are impossible to know far in advance. The gap between 32°C and 33°C is just one degree, which makes the outcome genuinely sensitive to small, unpredictable weather variations.

The odds right now

• 33°C100%
• 34°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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