Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Mexico City on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it's asking whether that peak temperature hits 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C — measured at the airport weather station. Think of it as predicting the afternoon high on a single summer day. The market currently favors 25°C (41%) and 26°C (38%) roughly equally, with 24°C seen as less likely at 17%. After July 14, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks one specific source — the Weather Underground page for Mexico City's Benito Juárez Airport station — and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever bracket (24°C, 25°C, or 26°C) that number falls into wins. One edge case worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point from July 15 appears before it officially closes, to make sure the full day's readings are in. None of the recent news provided is relevant to Mexico City's weather on July 14, 2026. The headlines cover unrelated political and financial topics from other parts of the world. What would actually matter here is localized weather forecast data for Mexico City as that date approaches — particularly any unusual heat or cloud patterns for mid-July. Mid-July in Mexico City is the rainy season, which makes single-day highs genuinely hard to pin down. Cloud cover and afternoon storms can knock the peak temperature down by a degree or two compared to a dry, sunny day. The three leading options — 24, 25, and 26°C — are all within a narrow two-degree band, so small day-to-day weather swings can easily shift the outcome between brackets. A one-degree difference is real but tiny, and weather forecasts that far out carry meaningful error.

The odds right now

• 25°C42%
• 26°C33%
• 24°C14%
• 23°C3%
• 27°C3%
• 28°C or higher1%
• 22°C1%
• 21°C0%
• 18°C or below0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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