Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, what will the hottest recorded temperature of the day be at Mexico City's main international airport? The options are specific degree values — 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C (roughly 75–79°F). The market is essentially a weather forecast expressed as a vote on which single temperature reading will be the daily high at that one location. After July 15, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Benito Juárez Airport weather station and reads the highest temperature logged that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whichever option matches that number wins. One important detail: temperatures can be revised during the day, but once the first data point from July 16 appears on the site, whatever the reading shows at that moment is locked in — no later corrections count. None of the provided news headlines relate to Mexico City's weather or temperature forecasts for July 15, 2026. The news worth watching for this market would be local weather forecasts for Mexico City in the days leading up to July 15 — particularly any meteorological reports about heat patterns, cloud cover, or rain systems moving through central Mexico, since those directly affect daily high temperatures. Weather is genuinely hard to pin to a single degree even a day in advance, let alone more than a year out. Mexico City sits at high altitude (about 2,200 meters), which moderates temperatures, but July is its rainy season — afternoon clouds and storms can dramatically lower the daily high. The spread across three options (24°C, 25°C, 26°C) reflects that uncertainty well. A slightly cloudier or rainier day than usual could push the answer a full degree in either direction.

The odds right now

• 25°C37%
• 26°C31%
• 24°C18%
• 23°C5%
• 27°C4%
• 22°C1%
• 21°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 20°C or below0%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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