Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Mexico City? Specifically, it's measured at the airport weather station, and you're guessing whether the peak hits 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C — roughly 75°F, 77°F, or 79°F. Mid-July in Mexico City is the rainy season, so daytime highs are typically milder than you might expect for a city at that latitude — cloud cover and afternoon rain tend to keep peak temperatures in that 23–26°C range. The market settles based on one specific reading: the single highest temperature logged at Mexico City's Benito Juárez Airport station on July 16, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground. Whichever bracket — 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C — contains that number wins. The temperature is rounded to a whole degree, so no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 17 appears; any corrections published after that cutoff are ignored. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. There are no weather forecasts or climate reports for Mexico City in the headlines given. The kind of news that would matter here would be a regional weather forecast for mid-July 2026, or reports of unusual heat or storm systems moving through central Mexico around that date. A one-day temperature reading at a single weather station is genuinely hard to pin down weeks in advance. July 16 falls in Mexico City's rainy season, when afternoon clouds and thunderstorms can pull the daily high several degrees lower than a clear day — but if the morning is sunny before clouds build, the peak can be higher. The three options (24°C, 25°C, 26°C) are clustered closely together, meaning a small shift in cloud timing or wind could swing the outcome from one bracket to another.

The odds right now

• 25°C50%
• 24°C28%
• 26°C16%
• 23°C5%
• 22°C2%
• 27°C2%
• 29°C or higher1%
• 21°C1%
• 28°C1%
• 20°C0%
• 19°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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