Highest temperature in Milan on July 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 13, 2026, how hot will it get in Milan? Specifically, it's asking which temperature bucket — 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — will match the single highest temperature recorded that day. Think of it as picking the peak of the day's heat. The market currently leans toward 33°C (about 91°F) as the most likely high, with 32°C (about 90°F) as a close second. The market settles based on one specific data point: the highest temperature logged on July 13, 2026, at Milan's Malpensa Airport weather station, as reported by Weather Underground. The number is rounded to a whole degree Celsius — so 32.7°C would count as 32°C, not 33°C. The result is locked in once the first reading from July 14 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. Because the event is over a year away, weather forecasts don't yet exist for that specific date. The kind of information that would eventually matter includes seasonal outlooks for northern Italy in summer 2026, or any emerging climate pattern signals — but none of that is available or meaningful this far out. A year-ahead daily temperature forecast is genuinely one of the hardest things to predict — weather science simply cannot reach that far with precision. The three options are separated by just one degree each, which is a very thin margin. Milan's July highs vary naturally from year to year depending on whether a heat dome, cloud cover, or a passing storm happens to fall on that exact date. The market's spread across all three buckets reflects that honest uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 33°C47%
• 32°C40%
• 31°C14%
• 34°C9%
• 35°C1%
• 36°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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