Highest temperature in Milan on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Milan? The answer is broken into ranges — the market is currently split mainly between 33°C, 34°C, and 35°C (roughly 91–95°F). A "Yes" for 34°C, for example, means the day's peak reading lands in that range. It's essentially a weather forecast turned into a question with multiple possible answers, where you're trying to match the actual high temperature to one of those buckets. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded on July 15, 2026 at Milan's Malpensa Airport weather station, as reported by Weather Underground. The reading is in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. Whichever temperature bucket contains that number wins. The result is locked in after the first data point from July 16 appears on the site, meaning any late corrections to the July 15 data after that cutoff are ignored. The source is a specific station (LIMC), so readings from other Milan locations don't count. The two news items provided are about Malaysian politics and have no connection to Milan's weather or this market. There is no relevant recent news to report here. What would actually matter to watch for is any extended European heat forecast for mid-July 2026 — meteorological outlooks issued a week or two before the date would be the most useful signal. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 15, 2026 is still far away, so no forecast today means much. Even close to the date, daily highs can shift by several degrees based on whether a heat dome holds, a storm passes through, or clouds arrive unexpectedly. The spread across three temperature ranges — 33°C, 34°C, and 35°C together covering nearly 80% of the market — reflects that honest uncertainty. A single degree separates the outcomes, and that's well within normal forecast error.

The odds right now

• 34°C35%
• 33°C25%
• 35°C19%
• 36°C9%
• 32°C or below4%
• 37°C3%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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