Highest temperature in Milan on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Milan get on July 16, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which temperature — 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C (roughly 90°F, 91°F, or 93°F) — will be the single highest reading recorded that day at Malpensa Airport, just outside the city. A 'Yes' for any option means the day's peak heat lands exactly in that range; whichever bracket matches the actual high temperature wins. The market settles using Weather Underground's official record for Malpensa Airport (station code LIMC) on July 16, 2026 — specifically the highest temperature logged that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The result is confirmed only after the first data point for July 17 appears on that site, locking in the final reading. Any late corrections to the July 16 data made after that cutoff are ignored, even if the official number later changes. No recent news relevant to Milan's weather on July 16 was provided. What would actually matter here is a medium-range weather forecast for northern Italy in the days leading up to that date — things like whether a heat dome is building over Europe or whether Atlantic systems are pushing cooler air south. That kind of forecast only becomes meaningful about 7–10 days out. Summer temperatures in Milan are genuinely hard to pin down even a week ahead. Mid-July is peak heat season in northern Italy, and the difference between 32°C and 34°C can come down to whether a single cloud system or dry wind shift arrives. The market spreads probability across three close brackets — 40%, 35%, and 14% — reflecting real uncertainty across a narrow 3-degree range. A late-breaking heat wave or an unexpected cool front could shift things quickly.

The odds right now

• 32°C43%
• 33°C36%
• 34°C13%
• 31°C8%
• 35°C3%
• 30°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 29°C1%
• 37°C or higher0%
• 28°C0%
• 27°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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