Highest temperature in Milan on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Milan get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Malpensa Airport — the main international airport serving Milan — measured in whole degrees Celsius. The options are temperature ranges (31°C, 32°C, 33°C, and presumably others), and whichever range contains the actual peak temperature wins. Think of it as guessing the hottest point of that one summer day. The market settles based on the peak temperature shown on Weather Underground's historical record for Malpensa Airport (station code LIMC) on July 19, 2026. It uses whole-number Celsius readings only — no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 20 appears on that site, meaning any corrections made before that cutoff count, but later revisions do not. Whichever temperature bracket — 31°C, 32°C, 33°C, or another — contains that final recorded peak is the winner. None of the recent headlines provided relate to this market at all — they cover events in Malaysia and Israel. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter is weather forecasting data for northern Italy as July 19 approaches: regional heat forecasts, any developing heat waves over southern Europe, or unusual atmospheric patterns pushing warm air toward the Po Valley where Milan sits. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and the three leading options — 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C — are priced very close together (22%, 27%, and 28%), which reflects real uncertainty. A single degree separates each outcome, and that margin can come down to cloud cover, wind direction, or timing of an afternoon storm. Milan in mid-July can range from mild to intensely hot depending on whether a heat dome sits over the Mediterranean that week. Small atmospheric changes create big swings between these narrow brackets.

The odds right now

• 33°C30%
• 32°C24%
• 31°C21%
• 30°C10%
• 34°C10%
• 35°C1%
• 29°C1%
• 28°C or below0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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