Highest temperature in Moscow on July 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 13, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Moscow — specifically at Vnukovo Airport, one of the city's main airports used as a standard weather measurement point? The options are whole-degree Celsius readings, with 23°C being roughly 73°F, 24°C roughly 75°F, and 22°C roughly 72°F. You're essentially guessing which single degree the thermometer peaks at on that one summer day. The market settles based on one specific number: the single highest temperature reading logged by NOAA at Vnukovo Airport on July 13, 2026, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever option contains that peak reading wins. The data comes from a public NOAA weather page. Settlement happens after the first reading from July 14 appears on that page — meaning the final hours of July 13 are included. If NOAA revises a reading before that cutoff, the revision counts; after it, the number is locked. There's no specific recent news relevant to this market. That's expected — it's over a year away. What would eventually matter is medium-range weather forecasting for Moscow in mid-July 2026, which won't be meaningfully accurate until about 10–14 days before the date. Historical climate data for Moscow in July is the main frame of reference right now. Predicting a single day's peak temperature more than a year out is genuinely very hard — even professional meteorologists can't forecast specific daily highs beyond about two weeks. The three options are clustered within just a 3-degree range, which is a narrow band; a slightly cooler or warmer air mass passing through on that one day could shift things entirely. The market currently leans toward 23°C, but the difference between any of these outcomes could come down to a single cloud or a shift in wind direction.

The odds right now

• 23°C52%
• 24°C30%
• 22°C14%
• 25°C1%
• 26°C or higher0%
• 16°C or below0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. The exchange's settlement fee applies everywhere and is shown before you confirm any trade. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.