Highest temperature in Moscow on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day in Moscow? There are three options — 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C — and you're picking which single degree the peak temperature will land on. To picture it: 25°C is a warm, pleasant summer day (about 77°F). 24°C is a touch cooler, and 26°C is noticeably warmer. The market is essentially asking which of those three feels most like a typical Moscow summer afternoon. The market settles based on one specific data source: the NOAA weather record for Vnukovo International Airport, one of Moscow's main airports. After July 14, 2026 ends, whoever checks that NOAA page looks at every temperature reading logged that day and finds the single highest one, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whichever option — 24, 25, or 26 — contains that number wins. One subtle detail: the reading is final once the first data point from July 15 appears; any later corrections to July 14's data won't count. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. For a weather question like this, what would matter closer to the date is the actual seasonal forecast for Moscow in mid-July 2026 — things like long-range weather outlooks, climate patterns for that week, or whether any unusual heat or cold systems are expected. Those signals won't be meaningful until much closer to July 14. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now — so any current odds are really just reflecting historical averages for Moscow in mid-July, not an actual forecast. The three options are packed tightly together: just one degree separates each choice. A passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, or a minor difference in the afternoon peak could tip the result from one bucket to another. That narrow range is exactly what makes this difficult — small errors in prediction become decisive.

The odds right now

• 25°C50%
• 26°C25%
• 24°C18%
• 23°C9%
• 22°C2%
• 27°C1%
• 21°C1%
• 20°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 19°C or below0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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