Highest temperature in Moscow on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Moscow on July 15, 2026? The three choices are 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C — each representing a one-degree band. Think of it like guessing the peak reading on a thermometer at Moscow's Vnukovo Airport on that specific day. The market currently leans toward 25°C (38%) and 24°C (36%) as the most likely outcomes, with 26°C seen as less probable at 15%. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded by NOAA at Vnukovo Airport on July 15, 2026 — measured in whole degrees Celsius. Whatever the peak number is that day, whichever bracket it falls into wins. The data comes from a specific NOAA web page, and the market waits until the first reading of July 16 appears before finalizing — giving time for any last-minute corrections to July 15 data. No revisions after that point are considered. The two news items provided are about Malaysian politics and are completely unrelated to Moscow weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter is short-range weather forecast data for Moscow around July 15, 2026 — things like approaching pressure systems or heat patterns over western Russia in the days before. Weather forecasting is genuinely hard even a day or two out, let alone further ahead — and a single degree makes the difference between outcomes here. The three leading options are tightly clustered: 24°C, 25°C, and 26°C are all within normal summer range for Moscow in mid-July. A shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing front can easily move the peak reading by one degree. The market is also currently missing any option below 24°C or above 26°C, so an unusual day in either direction would create its own complications.

The odds right now

• 24°C35%
• 25°C34%
• 26°C16%
• 23°C12%
• 27°C2%
• 22°C2%
• 28°C1%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%
• 19°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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