Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Munich get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Munich Airport — and whether that peak lands at 25°C, 26°C, 27°C, or some other value. To picture these numbers: 25°C is a pleasant warm summer day (about 77°F), 26°C is a bit warmer, and 27°C starts to feel properly hot. The market currently puts 27°C as the most likely outcome, at 37%. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading logged at Munich Airport Station (EDDM) on July 15, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the peak reading is that day — in whole degrees Celsius — that's the answer. One important detail: the market locks in once the first data point for July 16 appears on that site. Any temperature revisions published before that cutoff count; any corrections after it do not. So the final answer is essentially whatever Weather Underground shows before midnight ends. The two news items provided are about Malaysian politics and have no connection to Munich weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch for is any extended weather forecast for Munich in mid-July 2026 — or historical climate data showing what temperatures typically look like there in that period. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market resolves over a year from now. The spread across 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C shows real uncertainty — those three outcomes alone cover 82% of the market's probability, meaning a wide range is plausible. Munich in mid-July can range from mild to genuinely hot depending on whether a heat wave or a cooler Atlantic system moves through. Small differences in timing of weather systems can shift the peak by several degrees, making this a close call even close to the date.

The odds right now

• 27°C37%
• 26°C32%
• 25°C17%
• 28°C10%
• 29°C or higher5%
• 24°C2%
• 23°C1%
• 22°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 19°C or below0%
• 20°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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