Highest temperature in Munich on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the peak temperature be in Munich on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it uses the weather station at Munich Airport as the measuring point. The three main options are 21°C, 22°C, or 23°C — roughly 70°F, 72°F, and 73°F — so the question is really about which of those mild-to-warm summer temperatures the day tops out at. It's not asking about averages or overnight lows, just the single highest reading of the day. At the end of July 19, 2026, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for Munich Airport's official recorded high temperature on that day, measured in whole degrees Celsius. Whatever number that page shows as the day's peak becomes the answer — no fractions, just a round number like 22°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 20 appears on that site, so only readings published before that cutoff count. The two recent headlines provided — one about an IMF adviser appointment and one about a port construction project — have no connection to Munich's weather. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is short-range weather forecasts for Munich in the days just before July 19, 2026, which would give a much clearer signal as the date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to pin down to a single degree, even close to the date. Munich in mid-July can swing noticeably depending on whether a warm air mass, a storm front, or cloud cover arrives. The market is spread across three options — 22°C leads at 44%, but 23°C and 21°C together account for nearly half the probability — which reflects that one-degree differences are very sensitive to small shifts in conditions. A reading of 22.4°C and 21.6°C both round differently, so a razor-thin margin can change the outcome.

The odds right now

• 22°C46%
• 23°C29%
• 21°C20%
• 24°C7%
• 20°C4%
• 19°C or below1%
• 25°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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