Highest temperature in NYC on July 13?

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will New York City get on July 13, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which temperature range the afternoon peak will fall into — will the day top out around 82–83°F (a mild summer day), 84–85°F (warm but typical), or 86–87°F (a properly hot July day)? No trading concepts involved — it's just a weather question with three possible answers. After July 13, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the official weather record for LaGuardia Airport (station code KLGA) on Weather Underground. Whatever the single highest temperature reading was that day — rounded to a whole degree Fahrenheit — determines the winner. One important detail: if Weather Underground revises the temperature while July 13 is still ongoing, that revision counts. But once the first data point for July 14 appears, the number is locked in, even if corrections come later. No recent news was provided that's relevant to this market, which makes sense — it's a weather question about a specific day more than a year from now. What would actually matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for the northeastern U.S., and eventually the 10-day or day-of weather forecasts for New York City in mid-July 2026. Summer weather in New York is genuinely hard to pin down more than a year out. The market sees the three ranges as fairly close — 46%, 41%, and 13% — which reflects that honest uncertainty. Mid-July in NYC averages in the low-to-mid 80s, so 84–87°F is historically plausible, but any given day could be nudged cooler by cloud cover or a sea breeze, or pushed hotter by a heat dome. A single passing storm on July 13 could shift the peak by several degrees.

The odds right now

• 84-85°F48%
• 86-87°F37%
• 82-83°F14%
• 88-89°F3%
• 90-91°F1%
• 80-81°F0%
• 92-93°F0%
• 77°F or below0%
• 78-79°F0%
• 94-95°F0%
• 96°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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