Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will New York City get on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at LaGuardia Airport — and which two-degree range it falls into. The ranges on offer are 94–95°F, 96–97°F, or 98–99°F (roughly 34–37°C). Think of it as picking the peak of the day's heat, not the average. After July 14 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for LaGuardia Airport's official high temperature that day. Whatever whole-number Fahrenheit reading is recorded as the daily peak determines which range wins. One important detail: temperature readings can be revised up until the first data point of July 15 is published — after that, the number is locked in, even if it changes later. No weather-related news was provided that speaks directly to conditions around July 14, 2026. The one headline listed appears unrelated to this market. To follow this question, the most relevant things to watch would be extended weather forecasts for New York City as the date approaches, and any heat advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Weather forecasting more than a day or two out carries genuine uncertainty — even professional meteorologists work with ranges, not exact numbers. Mid-July in NYC is historically hot, which is why the market is clustered around 94–99°F rather than cooler ranges. But whether the peak lands at 95°F or 97°F on one specific day depends on factors like wind direction and cloud cover that are hard to pin down in advance. The market currently leans toward 96–97°F, but the spread across three ranges shows real uncertainty remains.

The odds right now

• 96-97°F55%
• 94-95°F30%
• 98-99°F14%
• 92-93°F3%
• 100-101°F1%
• 90-91°F1%
• 88-89°F0%
• 87°F or below0%
• 102-103°F0%
• 104-105°F0%
• 106°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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