Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will New York City get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which temperature range — like 96–97°F, 98–99°F, or 100–101°F — will contain the single hottest reading of the day at LaGuardia Airport. Think of it as a group guessing the peak afternoon temperature on one specific summer day in NYC, broken into two-degree buckets. After July 15, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for LaGuardia Airport's highest recorded temperature that day, measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit. Whichever two-degree range that number falls into wins. One small detail: temperature readings can be revised slightly during the day, but once the first reading from July 16 appears on the site, the number is locked in for good. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. What would actually matter here are forecasts issued in the days leading up to July 15, 2026 — particularly any heat wave warnings, high-pressure systems sitting over the Northeast, or National Weather Service outlooks for New York City that week. Weather this far out is genuinely hard to predict — even professional forecasters can't reliably nail a specific high temperature more than a week or two in advance. Mid-July in NYC can range from a comfortable 85°F to a brutal 103°F depending on wind, humidity, and whether a heat dome is parked overhead. The market currently leans toward 98–99°F, but the spread across nearby ranges reflects how much real uncertainty exists even close to the date.

The odds right now

• 98-99°F30%
• 100-101°F18%
• 96-97°F17%
• 102-103°F13%
• 93°F or below8%
• 94-95°F7%
• 104-105°F2%
• 106-107°F0%
• 108-109°F0%
• 110-111°F0%
• 112°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.