Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how hot will New York City get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at LaGuardia Airport — and which 2-degree range that peak temperature falls into. A 'Yes' for the 82–83°F bracket, for example, would mean the hottest moment of that day hit either 82 or 83 degrees Fahrenheit at LaGuardia. Think of it as guessing the afternoon high on a summer day in NYC. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport (weather station code KLGA) on July 19, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever that peak reading is — rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit — determines which bracket wins. The result is locked in once data from July 20 starts appearing, so any late corrections to the July 19 data made after that point won't count. There's no judgment call here; it's purely whatever number the weather station records. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is unrelated to New York weather. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes extended forecasts for the New York City area in mid-July 2026, or updates about unusual weather patterns — like a heat dome or a cold front — approaching the region around that date. July weather in NYC is genuinely hard to pin down more than a few days in advance, and this market ends over a year from now, making precise forecasting impossible today. Mid-July in NYC typically sees highs in the low-to-mid 80s, which is why the market clusters around 80–85°F — but a passing cold front could push the high into the 70s, while a heat wave could send it into the 90s. The spread across multiple brackets reflects that honest uncertainty: no single outcome dominates enough to feel certain.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F40%
• 82-83°F30%
• 78-79°F16%
• 84-85°F12%
• 76-77°F4%
• 86-87°F2%
• 74-75°F1%
• 88-89°F0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 73°F or below0%
• 92°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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