Highest temperature in Panama City on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, how hot will it get in Panama City, Panama? Specifically, it asks whether the single hottest reading of the day at the city's main airport weather station will land at 31°C (about 88°F), 32°C (about 90°F), or 33°C (about 91°F). A 'Yes' on any one of those options means the thermometer peaked in that exact degree — not a range, just that specific whole number. At the end of July 19, 2026, someone will check the Weather Underground page for the Marcos A. Gelabert International Airport station and read the single highest temperature recorded that day, in whole degrees Celsius. Whichever option matches that number wins. One important detail: the reading must be final before the first data point of July 20 appears — after that, any corrections to the data no longer count. None of the recent news provided is connected to this market. The headlines cover US mortgage rates, Indian politics, and an East African diplomatic visit — nothing relevant to Panama City's weather. What would actually matter here is any local forecast for Panama City around July 19, 2026, or historical temperature records for that date in past years. Weather forecasting a year in advance is genuinely very hard — even professional meteorologists work with wide uncertainty at that range. Panama City in mid-July is hot and humid, which is why all three options cluster in a narrow band (31–33°C), but a single passing cloud or a slightly stronger afternoon sea breeze can shift the daily peak by a degree. The spread across the three options — 39%, 34%, 16% — reflects real uncertainty even among people watching this closely.

The odds right now

• 31°C39%
• 32°C27%
• 30°C18%
• 33°C14%
• 29°C2%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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