Highest temperature in Paris on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Paris get on July 14, 2026 — Bastille Day? Specifically, it's asking which temperature bucket the day's peak heat will land in: 34°C (about 93°F), 35°C (about 95°F), or 36°C (about 97°F). A single weather reading at one specific airport station on one specific day settles it. Think of it as a friendly argument about whether Paris will have a very hot, a hotter, or an extremely hot summer afternoon on France's national holiday. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on July 14, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-degree Celsius number appears as the day's peak — 34, 35, or 36 — determines which option wins. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 15 appears; any corrections published after that won't count. There's no human judgment involved — it's purely what that one weather station records. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would actually matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for France in mid-July 2026 — something like a long-range climate outlook or an unusual pressure pattern forming over Western Europe. That information simply isn't available this far out, which is part of what makes this an interesting question to begin with. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even a week out, let alone over a year away. Right now the market puts 35°C as the most likely outcome at roughly 48%, but 34°C is close behind at 39%, and 36°C holds 13%. The spread is honest: a single degree of difference is well within normal day-to-day weather variation. July 14 in Paris can range from mild to sweltering depending on whether a heat dome sits over Europe or Atlantic air brings cooler conditions — factors that simply can't be known this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 35°C49%
• 34°C37%
• 36°C13%
• 33°C3%
• 37°C1%
• 32°C1%
• 38°C0%
• 31°C or below0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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