Highest temperature in Paris on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: when July 15, 2026 ends in Paris, what will the single highest temperature of that day turn out to be? The three options — 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C — each represent a specific whole-number reading, like choosing which notch on a thermometer the day peaks at. In practical terms, 32°C feels like a hot summer afternoon (about 90°F), so this is really asking how warm that particular July day gets at a specific airport weather station just northeast of the city center. Once July 15 ends and the first data from July 16 appears on Weather Underground's page for Paris-Le Bourget Airport, whoever runs this market looks at the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever bracket contains that number wins — so if the peak is exactly 32°C, the 32°C option settles as correct. Temperatures are only read in whole numbers, so there's no splitting between brackets. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before midnight don't count once the next day's data appears. None of the recent news provided relates to Paris weather, French temperatures, or any meteorological event that would affect this market. No relevant news is available to point to here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a short-range weather forecast for the Paris region issued within a few days of July 15 — that's what would give the clearest signal about where the temperature is likely to land. Weather on a single specific day, even in a familiar city in peak summer, is genuinely hard to pin to one exact degree. A passing cloud system, wind direction, or a brief shift in Atlantic air flow can swing the daily high by several degrees. The market spreads its probability across three options — 32°C at 43%, 31°C at 23%, 33°C at 19% — meaning meaningful weight sits on all three outcomes. Since this reads one station (Le Bourget), local micro-conditions there, not Paris broadly, are what decide it.

The odds right now

• 32°C43%
• 31°C28%
• 33°C16%
• 30°C or below11%
• 34°C4%
• 35°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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