Highest temperature in Paris on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Paris? The three options are 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — think of those as roughly 88°F, 90°F, and 91°F. Only one option wins: whichever single degree matches the actual peak temperature recorded that day. It's not a range you pick — it's one specific number, measured at a specific airport weather station just north of central Paris. After July 16 ends, the market checks Weather Underground's official record for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station (LFPB) and reads the highest temperature logged that day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius. Whichever option matches that number wins. The result can be revised slightly while July 16 is still in progress, but once the first data point for July 17 appears on that website, the reading is locked in and no further corrections count. No relevant news was provided — the two headlines have nothing to do with Paris weather. For this market, the thing to watch is actual weather forecasts for Paris in the days leading up to July 16. A heat advisory, an incoming Atlantic low, or a shift in the jet stream would all be meaningful signals. Weather forecasting is genuinely hard even a week out, let alone a year out — and this market ends in mid-July 2026. The three leading options (31°C, 32°C, 33°C) are clustered within just two degrees of each other, which is a very thin margin. Paris summers vary a lot: a cloudy day could keep the peak at 29°C, while a heat event could push it past 35°C. The market currently leans toward 32°C at 40%, but all three options remain live, and the tails beyond them are real possibilities too.

The odds right now

• 32°C40%
• 33°C30%
• 31°C14%
• 34°C13%
• 30°C3%
• 35°C2%
• 29°C or below1%
• 36°C1%
• 37°C0%
• 39°C or higher0%
• 38°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.