Highest temperature in Paris on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: what will the peak temperature be in Paris on July 19, 2026? The three options are 23°C, 24°C, or 25°C — roughly 73°F, 75°F, and 77°F — and you're picking which single degree the thermometer tops out at that day. It's not about the average temperature or the overnight low, just the single hottest reading of the day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The market settles based on the official high temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on July 19, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website — rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whichever option contains that exact number wins. One important detail: the data can be revised during the day, but once the first reading from July 20 is published, the number is locked in and no further corrections count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the key things to watch closer to the date would be medium-range weather forecasts for Paris in mid-July 2026 and any broader signals about European summer patterns that season. Weather more than a few days out is genuinely hard to predict, and this market is over a year away — so current odds reflect historical patterns for mid-July in Paris, not actual forecasts. July highs in Paris typically hover in exactly this 23–25°C range, which is why the options are clustered so tightly. The difference between a 23°C day and a 25°C day can come down to whether a single cloud system passes through, making this close to a coin toss between the top two options.

The odds right now

• 24°C43%
• 25°C33%
• 23°C18%
• 26°C6%
• 27°C1%
• 22°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 30°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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