Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Qingdao, China — specifically at its main international airport weather station? The three main choices are 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C (roughly 82°F, 84°F, and 86°F). You are not picking a range — you are picking a single whole-number degree that matches the peak reading on that day. Qingdao is a coastal city in eastern China, and mid-July is the heart of its warm, humid summer season. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the single highest reading recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on July 19, 2026, according to Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The reading is rounded to whole degrees Celsius — so 29.7°C would count as 29°C, not 30°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 20 appears on Weather Underground. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. The only news item provided — a story about a political investigation in Pakistan — has no connection to Qingdao's weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch closer to the date is any extended weather forecast for Qingdao in mid-July 2026, or reports of unusual heat or a cool marine air pattern affecting China's eastern coast that week. Weather one year from now is genuinely hard to forecast — even professional meteorologists cannot reliably predict a specific city's peak temperature more than about two weeks out. The three leading options (28°C, 29°C, 30°C) together account for about 83% of the market's probability, and they are clustered close together, meaning a single degree of difference decides everything. Coastal cities like Qingdao are also influenced by sea breezes that can shift the peak temperature significantly on any given day, adding extra local unpredictability.

The odds right now

• 29°C100%
• 30°C0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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