Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, what will the hottest reading of the day be at San Francisco International Airport? The answer is broken into temperature ranges — 74–75°F, 76–77°F, 78–79°F, and others — and whichever range contains the actual peak temperature that day wins. It's not about averages or nighttime lows, just the single highest number the thermometer hits at SFO on that one day. After July 14, 2026 ends, the market checks Weather Underground's historical data for the SFO airport station (KSFO) and finds the highest whole-degree Fahrenheit reading recorded that day. Whichever temperature range contains that number is the winner — that's how the market 'resolves,' meaning gets its final answer. One small detail: the result is locked in once the first data point for July 15 appears, so late revisions to July 14's data after that cutoff won't count. The one news item provided — about Malaysia's Health Ministry — has no connection to San Francisco weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter closer to the date is a local weather forecast for the San Francisco Bay Area around July 14, 2026, particularly any signals about marine layer fog or inland heat patterns, which strongly influence how warm SFO gets in summer. San Francisco's summer weather is genuinely tricky to forecast, even for meteorologists. The city sits right on the coast, and its peak daily temperature swings dramatically based on whether a marine fog layer burns off fully or lingers. A foggy July 14 could keep the high in the low 60s; a clear, warm day could push it past 80°F. The market currently spreads probability across several ranges, with 76–77°F leading at 31% — reflecting real uncertainty, not a near-certain outcome.

The odds right now

• 76-77°F34%
• 74-75°F31%
• 78-79°F17%
• 72-73°F10%
• 80-81°F6%
• 71°F or below5%
• 82-83°F1%
• 88-89°F0%
• 84-85°F0%
• 86-87°F0%
• 90°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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