Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, what will the hottest reading of the day be at San Francisco International Airport? The answer gets sorted into temperature ranges — the top three the market is pricing are 72–73°F (about 22°C), 74–75°F (about 23°C), and 70–71°F (about 21°C). Whoever picks the range that contains the actual high temperature that day wins. It's essentially a group forecast for one specific summer afternoon at SFO. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport (station code KSFO) on July 15, 2026, measured in whole-number degrees Fahrenheit, as shown on Weather Underground's daily history page for that station. Whoever holds the range that contains that number wins. One edge case worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point for July 16 is published before it officially closes, so last-minute temperature revisions on the 15th can still count. No recent news was provided that's relevant to this market. What would matter closer to the date is a short-range weather forecast for the San Francisco Bay Area around July 15 — specifically whether a marine layer (the coastal fog that keeps SF cooler than inland cities) is expected to be strong or weak that day, since that's the biggest driver of daily high temperatures at SFO. San Francisco's summer highs are genuinely hard to pin down, even though the three leading ranges are bunched close together — all within a 6-degree window. The city's famous fog means a single day can swing from cool and gray to warm and sunny depending on wind patterns that are difficult to forecast more than a few days out. The market currently leans toward 72–73°F, but the 70–71 and 74–75 ranges together account for nearly as much probability, reflecting real, honest uncertainty about a narrow temperature window.

The odds right now

• 72-73°F34%
• 74-75°F28%
• 70-71°F19%
• 76-77°F15%
• 68-69°F2%
• 78-79°F1%
• 67°F or below1%
• 80-81°F1%
• 84-85°F0%
• 82-83°F0%
• 86°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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