Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 11?

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will it get in San Francisco on June 11, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day at SFO airport — and which two-degree range that peak lands in. A 'Yes' on 82–83°F means the day's hottest reading falls somewhere in that narrow band; a 'Yes' on 84–85°F means it ran a little warmer, and so on. Think of it like a thermometer snapshot: what's the highest the mercury climbs all day? After June 11, 2026 ends and the first data point for June 12 appears on Weather Underground's SFO airport history page, whoever is settling this market checks the recorded daily high temperature. Whichever two-degree range that number falls into wins. The temperature is rounded to a whole number — so 83.7°F counts as 83°F. Any last-minute corrections to the reading are accepted until midnight flips to June 12; after that, whatever the record shows is final. No relevant news was provided for this market. The two headlines from June 11, 2026 — one about a mining stock, one about a pesticide study — have no bearing on San Francisco's temperature. What would actually matter here is a National Weather Service forecast or any advisory about an unusual heat event or marine layer affecting the Bay Area on that specific date. Weather is genuinely hard to pin to a two-degree window even a day in advance, let alone further out. San Francisco's June climate adds an extra layer of complexity: the famous marine layer (cool, foggy air from the Pacific) can suppress temperatures sharply on some days, while inland heat can push warm air over the city on others. A shift in wind direction of just a few miles can mean the difference between 81°F and 87°F. The market spreads its odds across multiple ranges for exactly this reason — small atmospheric changes swing the outcome between brackets.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F33%
• 84-85°F31%
• 86-87°F19%
• 81°F or below14%
• 88-89°F5%
• 90-91°F2%
• 92-93°F1%
• 94-95°F1%
• 98-99°F0%
• 100°F or higher0%
• 96-97°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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