Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 12, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be at San Francisco International Airport? The answer is broken into ranges — the market is essentially a vote on which band the peak temperature falls into, with 78–79°F currently seen as the most likely outcome, followed closely by 80–81°F, then 76–77°F. It settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at SFO airport on June 12, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The temperature is measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit — no decimals. The final reading is locked in once the first data point for June 13 is published; any corrections made before that cutoff count, but later revisions do not. Whichever two-degree range contains that peak temperature wins. None of the provided news headlines relate to San Francisco weather or forecasts for June 12, 2026. To follow this market, the thing worth watching would be short-range weather forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area as the date approaches — particularly any forecast for marine fog or inland heat, which are the two main forces that shape SFO's daily high temperatures. San Francisco's weather in June is genuinely tricky. The city sits between a cool Pacific fog system and warmer inland air, and which one dominates on any given day can shift the high temperature by 10°F or more. The three leading ranges together only cover about 70% of the market's implied probability, meaning nearly a 1-in-3 chance the temperature lands somewhere else entirely. June weather is somewhat predictable in pattern but highly variable day to day.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F30%
• 78-79°F26%
• 82-83°F20%
• 76-77°F13%
• 84-85°F6%
• 74-75°F4%
• 86°F or higher3%
• 70-71°F0%
• 72-73°F0%
• 67°F or below0%
• 68-69°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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