Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, what will the afternoon peak temperature be in São Paulo? Specifically, it uses the weather station at Guarulhos International Airport as the measuring point. The three options — 20°C, 21°C, or 22°C — each represent a different possible high for that day, roughly the difference between a cool winter day and a slightly milder one. July is the middle of São Paulo's winter, so these are all chilly-by-local-standards temperatures, not a heatwave question. On July 15, 2026, whoever runs the market will check the Weather Underground website for the Guarulhos Airport station and read the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever option — 20°C, 21°C, or 22°C — matches that number wins. The check happens only after the first reading for July 16 is published, meaning the full day must be complete. Temperatures are not averaged; it is strictly the peak reading for the day. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That is not unusual — a weather question about a specific day more than a year away would not have meaningful news yet. What would eventually matter is any seasonal forecast or climate pattern update for São Paulo's winter of 2026, particularly signals about whether that July is trending warmer or cooler than average. Weather on a specific day more than a year from now is genuinely hard to predict — no forecast model reaches that far with useful precision. The market's current spread across 20°C, 21°C, and 22°C reflects historical patterns for São Paulo in mid-July, not actual meteorological data for that date. The three options together cover a narrow 3-degree band, meaning even a slightly unusual cold snap or warm front could push the reading outside the most-favored options entirely.

The odds right now

• 22°C41%
• 21°C37%
• 20°C15%
• 23°C6%
• 19°C4%
• 24°C1%
• 18°C0%
• 25°C or higher0%
• 17°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 15°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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